A day before Montana’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee met to discuss the low precipitation levels of April and look at what was in store for the months to come, a traffic-stopping, Search and Rescue-compelling snowstorm occurred on Bozeman Pass on May 8. According to KBZK, the interstate was closed for almost 24 hours and some travelers were stuck in their cars for 15 hours.
Those presenting at the committee meeting — including representatives from the Natural Resources Conservation Service and the U.S. Geological Survey — said it’s too early to tell what impact the May storm will have on the state’s drought levels. One representative from the Montana Climate Office said the storms’ precipitation appears to have not soaked into the soil very thoroughly across the state, according to Montana Free Press.
Per the U.S. Drought Monitor, 61.31% of the state is in some level of drought as of May 16. State data shows the majority is categorized as “moderately dry,” some of the central and northcentral to northwest parts of the state is labeled “slightly dry,” a handful of counties in the central and southwest are labeled “severely dry” and Flathead County registers as the most severe with a rating of “extremely dry.” A bunch of precipitation through June could result in a normal wildfire season for the Seeley-Swan Valleys, but won’t much change drought conditions that are better ameliorated by snowpack, according to area experts.
One indicator of wildfire potential is the amount of moisture content in different fuel sizes. Fuel sizes can range from one-hour fuels, like small twigs and grass, to 1,000-hour fuels, like logs that are larger than eight inches in diameter. The one-hour fuels dry and ignite easily, and increase the rate that a fire spreads, but can go out quickly. The 1,000-hour fuels take a lot of heat to ignite, but once they do, they can hold heat and burn for a long time.
As of May 22, Quinn Carver, Seeley Lake District Ranger, said the Seeley area’s 1,000-hour fuels were at about 20% moisture content post winter 2023, which he said is low for May. Carver said between 26% and 34% is pretty normal for the spring. The lower the number, the greater the potential for larger wildfires. At the onset of the devastating Rice Ridge Fire in 2017, that number hit 10%, Carver said.
“(It’s) not terrible, but it won’t take a lot of no water for them to dry out,” Carver said.
According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1,000-hour fuels don’t burn easily, but if they do burn, they generate extreme heat and often cause dangerous fire conditions. These types of fuels propelled the Rice Ridge Fire, Carver said.
Clancy Jandreau, water steward with the Blackfoot Challenge — a natural resources conservation organization headquartered in Ovando — said the organization’s main messaging this year has been to prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.
Jandreau said according to data collected by the Blackfoot Challenge, snowpack conditions are as bad as they have been since the late 1980s. It’s pretty clear it will be a low-water year, Jandreau said, and the longer term climate outlooks for the next three months show warmer than average temperatures and below average precipitation. He said current forecasts, even under optimistic conditions, are showing well below normal flows, which will likely impact irrigation, recreation and fisheries.
“That’s not a great sign but it’s hard to predict exactly what that’ll mean for the summer,” Jandreau said.
The area that the Blackfoot Challenge monitors — which includes the Blackfoot watershed from Bonner through Seeley Lake and Helmville — is dependent on snowpack for long-term water storage and usage, Jandreau said. As of May 22, the Blackfoot River peaked at about 65% of median — or the middle of a range of values — snowpack, Jandreau said, and it’s not likely that’s going to recover before the summer.
Put a different way, snowpack likely peaked in the Blackfoot River on April 12 with a snow water equivalent — or the measure of how much water snow holds — of 12.2 inches. Typically, the Blackfoot’s median snow water equivalent is 18.8 inches, Jandreau said.
As the climate changes, it is anticipated that Montana will get more precipitation during the winter months, but as rain instead of snow. Jandrea said that’s something the Blackfoot Challenge considers a lot — planning for a future with less snowpack.
“How can we get folks to be more drought resilient in their production systems? How can we be taking advantage of soils and natural water storage and healthy soils and healthy crops that are more resilient to that kind of a future?” Jandreau said.
Rainfall is beneficial in the more short-term sense and can help stave off some of the negative effects of a decreased snowpack. It can keep soils moist and cool, which may make it so agricultural producers don’t have to irrigate as much. Fisheries wise, even if flows are lower than normal, rain can bolster water quantity and add cooler water, which helps the state’s cold water fisheries make it through the hotter, drier months, Jandreau said.
Another element that could play into summer conditions is changing weather patterns. This winter the northern United States experienced an El Niño weather cycle, which generally produces warmer and drier winters in that region. It’s anticipated that will shift to a La Niña cycle this summer, potentially bringing in a wetter and colder winter.
Perfectly competent at too many things
Keely's journalism career started with staff positions at the Lone Peak Lookout and The Madisonian in southwest Montana and freelancing for Dance Spirit Magazine.
In 2023, she completed a legislative reporting fellowship with KFF Health News during Montana's 68th legislative session and graduated with an MA in Environmental Journalism from the University of Montana. Keely completed a summer fire reporting internship with Montana Free Press in 2022.
Her bylines include Scientific American, Modern Farmer, U.S. News & World Report, CBS News, The New Republic, KFF Health News, Montana Free Press, Ars Technica, Mountain Journal and Outside Business Journal.
She also is a producer and editor for a Montana Public Radio podcast.
Keely received her undergraduate degrees in History and Religious Studies from Montana State University in 2017.
In her spare time, she's dancing, drinking processo and running around the mountains.
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