El Niño pattern keeping winter at bay

Seeley Lake and the rest of western Montana has continued to see drier and warmer than average conditions, as mountain snow levels continue to stay below 65% of normal, according to the National Water and Climate Center.

"We're in a classic El Niño pattern this winter," said Meteorologist Luke Robinson of the Missoula National Weather office. "There are some indications that it might change in mid-January, bringing some snow and cooler temperatures."

The El Niño weather pattern is caused by warmer sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific. The change has brought multiple high pressure systems across Montana, pushing the polar jet stream farther north into Canada.

Likewise, the Pacific jet stream is pushed farther south, which is bringing rain and lower temperatures to southern California and Arizona. That region could also see snow at higher elevations.

As of Dec. 23, The Upper Clark Fork Watershed has had just 43% of the median snowpack. The Flathead Watershed stood at 60% of normal, and no Montana region had more than 64% of the 40-year normal.

Marty Kux, a volunteer weather observer with the National Weather Service at Lindbergh Lake, Kux recorded 1.42 inches of precipitation and 10.8 inches of snowfall from Dec. 1 to Dec. 28.

The area's December precipitation ranges from 0.65 inches (1997) to 8.25 inches (1977).

December snow depth readings have varied from a low of 4 inches in 2002 to 39 inches of snow in 1996. The 40-year December average temperature is 22 degrees (1982-2022).

Residents of the Seeley-Swan Valley and the Blackfoot Valley are seeing bare patches of ground with only a few inches of snow. Like they say, stand by because the weather can change in five minutes.