What is a "Hot" Real Estate Market?
For the past two years, all that real estate professionals, economists and analysts seemed to talk about is the hot real estate market. But what does a "hot market" really mean? And if the market is hot, why are so many potential buyers frozen out?
In simple terms, a hot real estate market favors sellers due to high demand for property and a low supply of homes for sale. But when you look a little deeper, you see that current market conditions are based on much more than simple supply and demand. And although sky-rocketing real estate prices coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, on further examination, it's clear other factors came into play. In fact, the circumstances that fueled the current hot market have been stoking the real estate market for almost two decades.
Precipitating Factors
The pandemic brought major lifestyle changes such as remote work and homeschooling. A general fear of the pandemic encouraged buyers to move from densely populated areas to more rural settings. Record-low interest rates helped make a buyer's dollar stretch further and purchasing a home more attainable. But these factors only make up a portion of the current lack of housing supply.
Migration Patterns
People are more mobile than ever before. Patterns show Americans are purchasing homes away from traditional job centers in major metropolitan areas in favor of the suburbs and rural settings. Technology has been a major contributor in this trend. Freddie Mac released an analysis in February of 2021 showing that 60% of suburbs are experiencing more growth than city centers. They credit millennials for the shift and expect it to continue. An annual report by United Van Lines shows the previous year's migration patterns based on the primary reasons for the move. In 2021 the data showed the top reasons for moving to Montana were family (30.48%), retirement (24.76%), lifestyle (23.81%), work (22.86%), health (7.62%) and cost (5.71%). Some of these factors were motivated by the pandemic, while others, such as cost, deserve a deeper look into how they influenced an acceleration in the deurbanization trend.
The Tax Factor
WalletHub compiles an annual report that focuses on overall property, income and sales tax rates by state. These are then compared with migration patterns. The data shows a strong correlation between the lowest-taxed states and the number of new residents. For instance, the number one state for fleeing residents was Vermont, with a moderate overall tax rate of 10.75%. New York had the highest tax burden at 12.79% and is one of the top three metropolitan areas that decreased in population in the past two years (joined by Chicago and San Francisco). Despite the influx of new residents in western Montana, our state didn't even make the top ten for new residents. With respect to taxes, we tied with South Carolina as the 41st lowest-taxed state with a total tax burden of 7.45%. While lower overall tax rates play a role in decision-making, other factors cannot be ruled out.
Low Interest Rates
A portion of the increase in demand was triggered by record-low mortgage rates. In a recent interview, an economist with Core Logic explained that the low interested rates are opportunistic for new mortgages. And again, millennials were credited for influencing the increase, along with Gen Xers. Refinancing more than doubled from 2020 to 2021 showing that many people who may have otherwise sold their homes instead decided to restructure their assets and stay put – another hit to existing home availability and affordability.
Skeletons in the Housing Closet
Over the past two decades, the National Association of Realtors identified an "underbuilding gap" of 5.5 - 6.8 million housing units since 2001. Even our strong pre-pandemic economy left many lower-income and first-time homebuyers facing obstacles on their paths to homeownership. COVID only exacerbated an existing housing shortage and forced prices to historic levels. At the height of the 2021 selling season, housing prices rose by an unsustainable 18.8%, 32% above their peak in 2006.
Loose lending regulations and a seemingly endless supply of new construction brought on the historically high housing price boom in 2006. According to the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy, our current market is rooted in the last boom-bust cycle. In a rapidly increasing housing market, high prices far above normal appreciation are not sustainable. The market takes years to correct and its effects can be far reaching.
Left Out in the Cold
Many prospective homebuyers, especially first-time and low-income homebuyers, have been left out in the cold with respect to the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders reports that, "of all the new single-family homes built last year across the US, none were priced below $100,000. A mere 1% fell in the range of $100,000 to $150,000." Today's new homes are being built for the affluent. Where it was difficult for many first-time homebuyers to find property pre-pandemic, it's now virtually impossible. Buyers in the bottom one-fourth of the real estate market have been completely frozen out of new construction.
As housing prices rise, so does rent. Tenants are being priced out of rental properties or having them sold out from under them. Landlords can't pass up the opportunity to sell or worry that higher prices bring higher taxes.
Affordability isn't the only problem with lower-income buyers. In most scenarios, a seller will favor a cash offer or offers with more down. Financing can delay a sale or cause it to fail all together, making it a riskier scenario for sellers. Banks also require an appraisal when processing a mortgage. A cash buyer can often opt to forego an appraisal making a failed sale less likely. Cash buyers may be willing to take financial risks a lower-income buyer can't, such as not asking for inspections or repairs.
Future Predictions
The gradual increase in interest rates will help curtail demand, but this will take time. Some who moved to rural areas to escape COVID have begun filtering back to more populous areas. A recovering job market and high building costs will also help cool the market. Most real estate experts agree that the housing market is likely to remain strong for the near future. We can only hope that the conditions that created the current situation will continue to improve and the real estate market with become more temperate – benefiting the masses, not just a selective few.
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